So I think this is going on:
1) The function has 2 base offense.
2) I *think* it also gets another +1 if reforged blade was already active, even if not leading.
(but only if you have hardening left?)
3) If there is hardening left, you lose 1 hardening, and:
a) if you don't have reforged blade yet, you get 1 duration of that
b) otherwise, you get +1 offense (even if it doesn't lead the batch)
4) If it is leading the batch, and reforged blade is active, it gets the +1 from that. Even if you just got the effect one step earlier.
Together, this explains how a single forge blade can kill a pale swordsman without anything else (5 offense), which I think I have seen too many times while trying to just stun him.
Summary (I hope):
2 offense
- without the effect, no hardening is left (doesn't matter if leading)
- without the effect, not leading batch (even with hardening left)
- with effect, without hardening, not leading
3 offense
- without the effect, with hardening, leading the batch
- with effect, without hardening, leading
4 offense
- with the effect, with hardening, not leading
5 offense
- with effectm with hardening, leading
I would assume that the other forges follow the same scheme.
(edited for correctness and summary)
ETA2: this was all tested with the masterful coat equipped, but I think I killed the pale with a single forge blade even with a lesser form of the coat. Maybe the +1 from step 2 only applies with the coat? SSRT! But it's difficult to research.
I think the test case for that is "with effect, hardening left, not leading" against a control lock (which dies at 4 offense)