I got Dance of Ashes with 20 Fire Defense. The actual threshold is hopefully lower than that.
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Buffed reflexes up to 36, tried to run, got same result (6 XP).
I had 12 Fire Power and 12 Fire Defense and got Dust Conflagration from the first choice.
Another note: "Passing" the first choice and getting Dust Conflagration doesn't count for the purpose of unlocking Gimme Shelter. I didn't get another clipboard-specific encounter for the rest of the day.
I was able to ride the flames and get Dance of Ashes with 15 fire defense.
20 Evasion Power isn't enough to run away, so I guess it must be based on techniques in your deck.
36 reflexes, 24 Evasion Power and ~20 each of Dive for Cover/Leaping Dodge = successful run away.
28 reflexes, 2 Evasion Power, and 20 Evasion Techniques = successful run away
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